New study shows Mission in dire trouble

By Tim Redmond : 48hills – excerpt

City report says Latinos are getting forced out, working-class people are getting forced out, families are getting forced out — and building new market-rate housing isn’t going to help.

OCTOBER 29, 2015 – A report released yesterday by the city’s Legislative and Budget Analysts puts to rest, for good, the idea that San Francisco can stabilize housing prices by building more market-rate units.

The study of displacement in the Mission, requested by Sup. David Campos, shows the dramatic decrease in Latino population in that neighborhood and projects even further displacement in the future.

It also looks at how much housing the city would have to build to bring prices down to the level of the rest of the country: 15,300 units a year. If the city had built 459,000 new homes since 1980, the crisis might not be so bad, the report notes.

Under that scenario, the population of one of the densest cities in the nation would have more than doubled, to 1.7 million.

The cost of providing infrastructure for that many people would be astronomical and would dwarf even the relatively robust city budgets that we’ve seen in recent years…

Opponents of Prop. I, the 18-month halt in market-rate housing development, are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars trying to convince voters that it’s a bad idea They point to a study by the city’s economist that says stopping new buildings will only make things worse.

That study had its problems – but anyone who thinks more building or more luxury housing is going to trickle down and prevent displacement in the Mission hasn’t paid any attention to the history of housing in SF.

And now we know that the “build-and-build-and-the-rent-will-come-down” line is, to say the least, wildly optimistic. Unless we want to double the population of the city, or more, in the next ten years… (more)

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